Well Its clear by now that the last down wave was already completed and we are in a good bear market rally.  I say bear market rally and not a bull move for three reasons.  First, no bear market has ended before the end of the 4 year cycle since World War II and that cycle doesn't end until mid next year.  Second, We do not have a base for a new bull market, at some point the low is going to be tested. Thirdly, this market have risen faster than any other market since the 1930's.  Bull market tend to be slow and plodding coming off strong bases, bear market rallies are quick, and come out of nowhere with no bases. 

This market has managed to get back above SP500 800 which is the neckline of the huge double top in the SP500.  As long as it is above that level you can't be intermediate term bearish.  How far will it go, well bear market rallies go till their exhausted, so there isn't really any good way to tell but we can put some boundaries on it.  Most bear markets do not significantly get back above the 200 day moving average.   Currently on the SP500 that is at 973 so we can say SP500 1000 should be an upper boundary.  Below we have a daily chart of the SP500

There a couple of things to note.  First, the SP500 appears to have broken out of a reverse head and shoulders as have a number of other indexes.  This suggests we may only be halfway up in the rally.  However, there is a another strong trendline just above it which could stop the upswing for a counter trend correction.  Also, I have marked an area of heavy congestion just above the SP500 between the two horizontal trendlines.  So if we continue to go up, the probabilities say it will be much more choppy that the start of the rally.  We are also very short term overbought so the resistance just above the SP500 could mark the start of a correction.  Watch the reverse head and shoulders trendline, as long as we stay above it everything is good (the reverse head and shoulder projects a little above SP500 1000).

The NASDAQ has an even better pattern.

The Q's do have a nice base and they have broken out of the double bottom base to the upside.  As long as they stay above the base upper boundary , the pattern projects a move to just above 37.  They wont go straight up because you can see significant resistance at 34 where both the 200 EMA and the Andrew's pitchfork show resistance.  If they cant hold above base upper boundary then the bear market rally may be running out of steam.

 Something to keep an eye on is the energy stocks because they may be forming nice bases. Below is a chart of the Oil Service Holders.

They are tracing out a symmetrical triangle forming.  A breakout above the upper trendline would indicate a nice breakout from a solid base.  However, a triangle can also break to the downside, which would indicate another down wave in its bear market, but it is something to keep an eye on.

Another chart to keep and eye on is the Dollar Index.  Below is a chart of UUP.

This chart shows a potential failed test of the high.  If this index breaks the 9 month up trendline line, the dollar could be in for a big fall as the massive Fed dollar printing machine starts to kick in.